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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
This is not meant as a personal criticism, however it may be taken, but as an explanation as to why this is a perfect example of my prior criticisms of this poster's methods. You simply cannot be successful playing Pick-4s for the modest amounts this poster recommends. It is not so much that you will lose, but you will NOT win, as in this case this player should have hit the Pick-4 and collected over $600. Making up $20 may not be that hard, but making up the squandered $600 will prove impossible over time.
Hitting these multi-race bets ( specifically Pick-4s and Pick-6s ) is about two things.....having one good opinion ( MAYBE two for the Pick-6 ) and surviving the other races. This poster passed the first test with flying colors, as he found his single, and that horse won ( in this case at a very square 3-1 ). His opinion is quite obviously good. However, he failed the important test, which is using this excellent opinion to make money. And, why did he fail this test ( and not collect over $600 )? Because his play was weak and did not offer him the opportunity to cash.
Specifically, personally I think he played the first leg well, as he did not have a grasp on the race, and covered himself well. However, after that he was weak.....and why? Because he didn't bet enough combinations ( or commit enough money ). You can't go 2 x 2 and really expect to win these bets over time. You will almost always get tripped up in one ( if not both ) legs. And, while most of the time it won't matter, as your single will have lost, and you may think it was wise that you saved an additional $20-$30, this is not the case, as what happened today was that he lost 20 to 30 future $20-$30 plays. In other words, for an addition $25 today he could have gone 3 x 3 and very well have hit this thing, and thus received $600 more to invest in the future. And, with that additional money to invest, with a good opinion he may well parlay it into even more wins.
I am not saying he would have won today, and maybe he feels he couldn't have used the winner he missed, but over time he will give himself a much greater chance of hitting if his opinion is as solid as it was today. The idea is to make money and one does this by taking advantage of good opinions.
The guy claims to spend a minimum of four hours handicapping these races and I have no reason to doubt him. After doing that he valued his time at $5 an hour by investing only $20 into the Pick-4. Our time, and in his case expertise, is much more valuable than that.
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