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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.
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Obviously using two or more horses in a race in all likelihood will give one a better chance of surviving a leg, but most certainly any single is the strongest individual horse opinion a player has, otherwise it's tough to defend the play.
You won't " out handicap " them. It's a cute concept, but an immature one, and sadly they will probably " out handicap " and out spend you. Your competition is not nearly as weak as you may presume. The sooner a player figures out he's not trying to prove anything, and realizes playing the game is about making money, the sooner he will have a chance to actually achieve the right goal.