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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
BTW I read sometime back where you posted that Pat Day was NOT a great rider! With that said, no need to apologize for insulting me.
BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.
Stud: From a previous post where you listed the turf rail placements at your track I assume your "meet" is Calder. I certainly agree if you do not have a winning ticket in your "first" $24 the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Your tenets make sense and all 'cappers have them. I select a day to play, and play regardless of conviction. In fact probably playing FG Tuesday which would be the first Tuesday play since election day last year. Among my favorite tenets would be to look for a solid favorite to single! Perhaps some 70 percent of races are decided at the time of entry and the multi-race player can capitalize here. Also a change in the turf rail can make a horse highly unlikely even if they look very solid on paper. I also will spread or single in any leg.
Lastly I as well have a thick skin and do not rue tough beats very long. BBB
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You seem to have a bit of interest, so I'll respond and give you a few insights but it'll be my last response to you as your tone is too condescending, your insults are too veiled and your compliments are far too backhanded for my taste.
1. Turf Rail Placement. I've heard people give anecdotal opinions for years and years, generally that the further out the rail, the kinder to speed. It's overrated at the least, and plain wrong, at least on 7/8 courses for non-chute 2-turn races based on my 4-year review. The further out the rail, the closer to the first turn and - across all classes - the faster the pace. There is a very, very modest correlation to rail placement and speed kindness for chute and sprint races but it's so small I think it's meaningless to be honest. Maybe FG or CD is different from where I play, but I'd be surprised.
2. Diminishing Returns after the "first" $24. Wrong imo. It depends on the way the races set up. If you 'shoehorn' yourself like this and never adapt to take advantage of how you perceive the races set up, good luck to you, as I think you will surely need it.
3. If you choose to play a p-4 on a certain day and do so regardless of conviction using just a short ticket strategy, good luck. By any definition of the phrase, you are playing on the most recreational basis possible, That's ok, but you cannot expect to be taken seriously.
4. Don't read too much into my fondness of short tickets. I played 125 days of Calder last year. Two p-4's a day. I played 80 of them. Of the 80 I played, 25 were short tickets.
5. I suppose I'm happy for you and "everyone" else at your other "forum" who all had that $25 winner. All I can say with conviction is that if everyone at Derby Trail had the same horse, it would not have paid $25.
Good luck.