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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Let me further myself in this sillyness......
Here are how all horses that fit the following profile have run in the Kentucky Derby, over the last four years.
Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.
* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th
* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.
* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.
* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.
2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60
2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.
2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60
2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00
So, last three years, 6-3-2-0 record. Last four winners all fit. Not bad. No one fits it this year anyway though.
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Hard Spun fits your profile.
I don't think it's the craziest trend, based on what has been successful long-term in getting a horse ready for the Derby (a solid base at two, obvious brilliance, etc.)