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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Here are some reasons for you:
1. On average, about half the Derby field will be made up of horses not on that list.
2. Summer Doldrums is not on that list
3. More than 400 other Derby nominees are not on that list. Isn't it possible, dare I say likely, that a few of them will show some Derby-worthy talent in the next few weeks? It costs $600 to nominate a horse for the Derby; therefore many of these owners must be at least ready to go forward if their horse jumps up and shines.
4. In the 8 previous renditions of Pool 1 of the Future Wager, the Derby winner was not on the list 3 times. I don't see how this year's list is more impressive than each of those other years.
If the odds were worse, I still would have. Down to maybe 9-5. At 5-2, I feel like I've been given a gift. I doubt I'll make a better horse bet this year.
--Dunbar
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I bet the field one time and that was War Emblem's year and I got 2.8-1 which was fair b/c the list that year was poor and I knew it. In fact, I think 4 out of the first 5 finishers were in the field that year. Something like that....Mind you they have become better at picking the horses for this thing. The field hasn't won in 3 years.