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Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
You could have 'inferred' that I assumed that as well.
Just to poke fun back at you, please explain:
How exactly does one KNOW a horse Circular Quay is a 'closing sprinter" when he 1) ran his first route on Poly, 2) passes all but 1 horse in his 2nd attempt (were the other 12 all decelerating?) , 3) is 'stymied' in his latest route race?
Seriously, he may end up being exactly that, but I can't conclude that yet.
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I basically rely on " knowing " things in this game before they are obvious to everyone else. That's the only way to make money in this game.
One could excuse his polytrack effort if it hadn't been backed up by his BC two turn effort. Since they were both similar I doubt it was the polytrack that caused him a problem. Is that absolute? No, but it makes more than reasonable sense.
I am assuming you are kidding about the BC. Have you watched it? Looked at the chart perhaps? He lost by TEN lengths. More horses finish ninth that lose by ten lengths than finish second. It's pretty fair to assume those behind him were collapsing. And, you know what? They were.
The truth about Circular Quay is that while he's certainly a very nice horse he has never done anything of note. His wins have been moderately fast and the result of unbelievably good setups. A better way to label him would be " better closing sprinter than two-turn router but not exceptional at either ".