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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Here's some more info, 1st_Sat. Of the 5 lowest odds horses from Pool 1 each year, 60% have made it to the starting gate (21 of a possible 35). Of the next 5 lowest odds horses, 43% have started (15 of a possible 35).
Combining those figs with your 62 of 161, it looks like the "bottom 13" have just 26 of 91 possible starters, 29%.
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A crude way to use these figs would be to simply discount the future odds by the estimate of the horse not making it to the starting gate. You'd discount the favs' odds by 40%; the longshots' odds by 60-70%. So, if a horse looks like it's going to be 10-1 in the future pool, it would be the
very rough equivalent of 6-1 on Derby day. A 50-1 longshot discounted 70% would be worth 15-1 on Derby day. That would just give you a ballpark way of accounting for the chance your horse would not start. It also helps keep us from getting overly excited by 30-1 or 50-1.
--Dunbar