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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.
And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?
And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?
Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.
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I'm in no way suggesting there is no validity to what you are saying, and certainly specific instances you give can be helpful, but in order for it to be at all helpful you have to know how good the opinions are that you are getting.
As DrugS pointed out earlier, the connections you describe are too close to their horses, and their opinions are stilted. A good handicapper, while he may not have specific information, knows how to make reasonable judgements, at least generally, about the information you are referring to. And, as he will have an even and unbiased view of the ENTIRE field, he can weigh everything together. Will he make mistakes? Of course, but over time he will have a far fairer and more balanced judgement of the races.
Believe me, I have had MANY people of the categories you describe give me poor and inaccurate insights. I have been successful trusting my judgement in the past and I will continue to do so. I will be wrong more often than I am right....but it seems to work out in the end.