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Originally Posted by horseofcourse
Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field.
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I believe he has way more downside than upside and I also don't believe the race sets up to his strengths. Chatain and Strong Contender are both improving horses and even Hesanoldsalt is improving. Magna Graduate is dressed up due to a ridiculous bias aided win and will be way overbet relative to his chances.
To me he is the horse that makes the race betable as the money on him eliminates the takeout.