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Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Lava Man doesn't need the lead to run well, but he doesn't like to run behind horses. It looks to me that the other speed in here are the two inside horses; breaking from post 11, the Lava Dude should be able to get a position outside lapped on them - close to the lead, no horses in front of him, a perfectly comfortable spot for him.
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I agree completely. I have never been a big fan of the horse (I still have no idea why any sane person would have bet a dime on him in the BCC) but given his ideal conditions he is tough to beat. As far as I can see from his impressive performances last year he needs two things to win.
1) To be in Southern California.
2) To be in the CLEAR and NEAR the lead. He does not have to be first at every call, but he does need to have a clear path in front of him.
I think he is a solid single in this race today.