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Originally Posted by Cajungator26
A lot of thoroughbreds can run... it's how they perform in a race that sets apart the good ones and the bad ones. I had an appendix (he was my showjumper) that could beat my sister's thoroughbred (off the track, stakes winner of $100,000) up to a mile, but he had a herd mentality and would freak out if he got too far ahead of the others. To me, it takes an actual race or at the very least, a good 6 furlong work with 3 or 4 other horses to see how a horse really performs. Sometimes the most talented animals don't have it in them to actually win the races. JMO.
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I'm obviously not going be able to tell you exactly what a horse will accomplish in his career based on an 1/8th of a mile work. There's no way to do that. I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to pick out stakes horses and if I'm right around 35% of the time, then I'm doing really well. I would expect all the horses I pick to be able to run. I would estimate that around 70% of the horses I pick will be able to break their maiden in their first couple of starts unless they are horses that look like they want to run really long.