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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
You get to watch the horses work an 1/8th or even a 1/4 of a mile at the 2 year old sales. If you know what you are looking at, you will have a very good idea as to which sires are throwing runners. You don't need to wait until they run in a race to know which ones can run.
With yearlings, you can't tell nearly as much. However, even with yearlings you can make a good educated guess as to which ones can run. Last year we bought 15 yearlings for our pinhooking business. Every single one of them could run. Every single horse worked an 1/8th of a mile in :10 and change. Actually, there was one horse that worked :11 flat. That's pretty darn good. Basically every horse could run a little and some of them could run a lot.
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A lot of thoroughbreds can run... it's how they perform in a race that sets apart the good ones and the bad ones. I had an appendix (he was my showjumper) that could beat my sister's thoroughbred (off the track, stakes winner of $100,000) up to a mile, but he had a herd mentality and would freak out if he got too far ahead of the others. To me, it takes an actual race or at the very least, a good 6 furlong work with 3 or 4 other horses to see how a horse really performs. Sometimes the most talented animals don't have it in them to actually win the races. JMO.