Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
You would make several hundred thousand dollars a year betting horses if there wasn't a high correllation between a horse being well placed and the horse's odds. I'm not saying the general public is perfect. They make mistakes all the time. They may have over-bet DM a little bit, but not by much. What odds do you think he should have gone off at in each one of those races this year? In his first race back, what odds should he have gone off at? Maybe he shouldn't have been 2-5. Maybe he should have been 4-5. That's hardly a bad spot to run a horse. In the Pat O'Brien, maybe he shouldn't have been 3-2. Maybe he should have been 2-1 or 5-2. That's hardly running a horse over his head.
If you think DM should have been 10-1 or 15-1 in those races and you think the public makes mistakes like this, then you would make hundres of thousands of dollars betting the horses every year. Do you know what kind of edge you would have if there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5? If there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5, you could retire.
|
I have actually done very well betting against DM since his comeback....I love it that people actually bet on him...more value on others...couldnt be happier betting wise...
Caught Dixiemeister when he drowned DM....exacta was pretty damn good also with Gomez horse in 2nd....