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Originally Posted by stonegossard
Your argument here is beyond ridiculous. You are telling me the fact that the moronic betting public ridiculously overbets him and he goes off at stupidly low odds means he was well placed? Thas a new one. Also very scary thinking on your part.
Ellis has over and over talked up this horse...and the betting public has bought into it. I actually love when the idiot opens his mouth....get great value on other horses.
Yes..he went off at 2-5 in a comeback allowance race.....people who bet him that race should be required to wear safety helmets when they walk from the couch to the kitchen.
How did he run in the PAt O'brien and his next two races where only people who needed losing tickets to offset signers bet him?
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You would make several hundred thousand dollars a year betting horses if there wasn't a high correllation between a horse being well placed and the horse's odds. I'm not saying the general public is perfect. They make mistakes all the time. They may have over-bet DM a little bit, but not by much. What odds do you think he should have gone off at in each one of those races this year? In his first race back, what odds should he have gone off at? Maybe he shouldn't have been 2-5. Maybe he should have been 4-5. That's hardly a bad spot to run a horse. In the Pat O'Brien, maybe he shouldn't have been 3-2. Maybe he should have been 2-1 or 5-2. That's hardly running a horse over his head.
If you think DM should have been 10-1 or 15-1 in those races and you think the public makes mistakes like this, then you would make hundres of thousands of dollars betting the horses every year. Do you know what kind of edge you would have if there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5? If there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5, you could retire.