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Originally Posted by miraja2
Of course. Pedigree alone is NEVER a reason to be excited about a horse's chances. I get excited about a horse when it shows ability (which this colt has) AND has a pedigree which indicates that it SHOULD be able to stretch out.
I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
For example, if someone was excited about Lawyer Ron early last year, guess what, they were right! Just because he was a nonfactor in the Derby and missed the rest of the TC, his performance in the Risen Star/Southwest/Rebel/Arkansas Derby means that his early backers were right. It should not be ALL about the first Saturday in May.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.
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true...so many horses are considered a failure if they don't win in ky, but only ONE horse can win--every other 3 yo is a failure, or overrated if they don't?!
another horse i got on somewhat early was smarty--but i didn't think he was truly going to win the derby til he won the ark derby. i turned to my kids after he crossed the finish that day and said there's your derby horse. it was fun-but in a way, not so fun...you know that if you're right, that the horse is that good, you're days watching him are numbered.
i know rick porter was already offered a lot of money for this guy-those offers will only get bigger if he continues to do so well.