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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I dont think that hitting the board in the Derby would raise her value that much. Winning the Derby would be another matter but I cant see that happening.
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Obviously, it's a longshot -- but I see it this way. If she goes to the Derby, it means that she's likely done pretty well this Spring...on dirt. They aren't going to throw her in there off of huge losses just because they can based on her Juvenile Fillies earnings.
With that said, she gets in the gate, it's because she's racing well. At that point, her odds will be far below 100-1 if she has been running well enough to get her connections to take her in the first place. If she's been running that well, I would likely have a saver/homer bet on her in the Derby anyway, so why wouldn't I take 100-1 when it's at least twice as much as I'd get on her in the Derby?
It's just like taking 100-1 that she's going to have a good Spring.
My logic may be atrocious in this case, but it certainly makes sense in my head.