Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
Wednesday picks.
Race 6. #4 Klimt Master, 20/1. Klimt Master was mugged at the start of last race but I was impressed with how he cut the corner heading into the stretch and really made up some ground. His figures fit with every contender here and he’s got the added benefit of dropping into MCL from the MSW ranks. He’ll get majorly overlooked due to his jockey and trainer but tell me how much you really trust any horse in this race. Give him a clean trip and he’s got a huge chance to win this.
Race 8. #1 Disco Star, 5/2. Disco Star looks like the most talented horse in this field by a wide margin and I don’t want to take short prices on the other likely favorites — Hangover Heaven, Nonna Lynne, and Trail of Gold. Casse has brought a lot of horses ready to run to Saratoga and I’d expect her to appreciate the slight cutback.
Thursday
Race 6. #5 Schwarzenegger, 8/5. I’ve been waiting to bet this 2YO and hoping he doesn’t scratch out again. Im very doubtful that we get 8/5 on him but if he’s 8/5 then I’m in.
Race 9. #6 Mo Kreesa, 15/1. The pace here looks favorable for Mo Kreesa and note he gets Johnny V aboard for this race. I thought the ML favorite Enlighten got a perfect trip last out and still wasn’t able to win. Now he switches to a different barn and loses Irad so I’m not inclined to take him at a short price even if Santana has been riding great. The other likely top choice #7 Steadfast Resolve drops in class and comes out of some longer races and has Irad aboard. I like that horse a lot more than Enlighten — but you’ve got to wonder if he’ll be compromised by what looks to be a slow or at least moderate pace. The other pace horse that might interest me is Gem Mint Ten but he draws Romero Maragh and I don’t have full confidence in him like I do Johnny V. Mo Kreesa also switches barns to Mark Hennig and looking for him to move the horse up a bit from Linda Dixon.
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$224.00 wagered
$278.50 returned
As much as I've bought in to the Schwarzenegger hype, I can't pick an 8/5 two year old as one of my picks. I'm sticking with Mo Kreesa for all the reasons mentioned above. The other horse I want to take a shot on is going to be an absolutely massive price and will probably not win...but there are a few things I like and I'll regret it if I don't back him and he wins.
Race 3. #1 Extraoardinary One, 20/1. So, the things you obviously don't like here are that the horse has been running against lower competition, has a trainer with weak numbers, and will have Katie Davis aboard who has yet to win at Saratoga this meet. And this horse has not finished in the money once in 8 career starts. OK. But there are a few things I like about this horse -- first, he's clearly better on turf than any other surface and so 5 of his starts were wasted on other surfaces. His figure two back puts him in contention here, though that was at a dramatically longer 11 furlongs. But why was this horse going long to begin with? His sire and grandsire were sprinters and he's clearly faded in many of the route races he's been in, despite getting out to a good start. Now, he adds lasix and I've got no clue if that will make a difference or not but I'm getting a big price on a horse that does have some positives going for him. I'm not totally against the morning line favorite but believe only 2 of the 18 non-winners from his first two starts have gone on to win and one of those was on dirt so I'll take a shot against him.