[moses]

I may be busy with the family this weekend so going to post some picks for tomorrow and Sunday now. If I have more time to look, I'll provide additional commentary or might even change them up.


Saturday.

Race 4. #9 Common Defense, 6/1. A few things here. First, Aragona is great with the morning line but I think this horse will be above 6/1. Carmouche has been riding well and note McPeek tries to get him back on turf, which he’s bred for. In some ways, it’s good he got his first race off the layoff out of the way. If he likes the turf at all, he should be able to sit behind Be Of Courage and make the first move.

Race 7. #2 Magical Ways, 12/1. Most of his turf races put him in the ballpark and note he tended to run figures a little better on turf than his dirt form coming into a race. (13 point jump in TF figure in October of last year when going dirt/turf and 17 point jump in TF figure last March going dirt/turf.) Rudy has tried to get him back on the grass the last three races and they were all washed off. A 10-15 Timeform jump would put him at 123-128 Timeform. I don't expect that but even a modest improvement going dirt/turf will make him competitive against the top horses in here. I don't love that Maragh hops aboard or that he's never won on turf -- but that also means his price will be good. The pace looks like it will be honest here and Magical Ways should be picking up pieces late. I think he's a must-use underneath and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him get up for the win.

(Note: Originally picked Far Bridge but switched to Common Defence to play the higher odds.)



Sunday.

Race 9. #8 Gabaldon, 8/1. I'm going to lose money betting against Governor Sam again but I want to take a shot here. Gabaldon reports as a first time gelding and gets Jose Ortiz to hop aboard. He's never finished out of the money in his three starts (all stakes races). The connections obviously think highly of him as he made his debut in a stakes race at Gulfstream (which he coincidentally won after running Governor Sam into the ground) and then was shipped to Ascot where he ran 2nd. He came up short last out after setting the pace but you've got to forgive him a little for faltering as he was thrown right back into stakes company off a 9 month layoff. He was given some rest and looks to be working well in preparation for this race.

Race 10. #10 Turn and Count, 20/1. Obviously this horse needs to get a little faster to be able to win this race but note he's run into some really good horses and he may like stretching out to two turns. The likely favorites in this race leave me underwhelmed -- Classicist got an easy front running win last out, and while that was an impressive return off a long layoff, he won't get an easy lead in this one as the horse to his immediate inside Tuscan Gold adds blinkers with Chileno and Hop Sing likely adding to the pace. Carlos Martin and Luis Rivera connecting at a 19% rate for 2024-2025. It's a longshot but I want to see how much this colt has improved since May. I've made worse bets.