Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
Swing and a miss with both picks. I was able to cash some tickets today thanks to Deterministic. I didn’t even bet a trifecta that race but holy cow — it paid $330 for Deterministic-Intellect-Win For The Money, who in my opinion all made sense.
Good call on Intellect, by the way.
$168.00 wagered
$270.40 returned
For Sunday.
Race 3. #8 Hero’s Medal, 8/1. This is purely a pace play as I fully expect the pace to get hot and I want a late runner. Obviously the other Kantarmaci horse makes some sense too but this one should be a bigger price and he has races from last year that would win this and even his recent races haven’t been too bad so hoping the pace develops and Dylan can run them down in the stretch.
Race 7. #5 Doroteo, 10/1. There are a lot of big names in this race so this horse who broke its maiden at Indy and trained by Jose Camejo will get overlooked. Camejo doesn’t send horses to Saratoga too often so I’ve got to think he likes this one. The pace here will also be very fast with multiple horses who like to run up front. Doroteo ran into some pretty good horses in prior starts, including Hypnus and Clever Again. And you’ve got to wonder if he even wanted to go two turns. His debut was trial by fire as he got dropped right into a stakes race and was good enough to run 2nd there. The connections obviously think highly of him. He was great last out, rating well inside and behind the speed, then cut the corner at the top of the stretch and was gone. He’ll likely have to navigate more traffic this time but he should get the pace setup, if he’s good enough.
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Doroteo is scratched.
I’m going to look to Race 6 and pick
#4 Can’t Fool Me, 15/1. ML favorite #6 Vino Rouge is the horse to beat and he should get a good pace scenario but he’s actually never won a turf race (though he did finish 1st and was DQed.) #3 Louise Procter was the only horse to make up significant ground in her U.S. debut but not sure she gets much pace to run at here. #1 Collaboration could move up under Irad but Linda Rice doesn’t have good turf numbers. The horse I think has the best chance to win is #8 Celtic Charm who was wide throughout last race coming off a long layoff. She now cuts back a bit and I’d expect will move forward here. But I want to take a swing on #4 Can’t Fool Me who gets the jockey changed to Rosario. Can’t Fool Me just never looked comfortable last out and might jive more with Rosario than Santana or Franco. She has struggled outside of the State bred races but I’m hoping the jockey change will be enough to turn the tables. I’ll be using exclusively 4&8 in multis and will probably bet a staggered trifecta centered around the 4 and 8.