^Thanks Steve.
8/2/25
Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Intellect 5/1 - I get thinking this one is an underlay but I actually have a very different take on the Kelso than most - I think the interference helped horses like Think Big and Neat as it allowed them to back off of the hottest pace of the race. I thought Prat moved far too early into the teeth of the race and was why he was ultimately outfinished. Prior to that he was too far back behind a pace that didn't develop quite enough. I think he gets the right trip today at a square price and while I do think Win For The Money is interesting for similar reasons racing wide that day, I just think maybe Intellect has more upside overall and today is the day to find out.
Best Value: Race 9 #1 Capitol Hill 15/1 - For better or worse this might be the horse I'm most excited to bet all meet so far...I realize the Euros have merits, particularly Hotazhell who if coming with an A effort will probably be too much, but I think there is a major question mark on how his running style, along with the other two, will translate here. I'm not against but I definitely don't want the short price...my main opinion on this race is that I really like Capitol Hill more than any of the NA contingent, and he figures to be a big price. I've never been a huge Final Gambit fan and I don't really get the excuses most are making for him last out. Tiztastic is kind of a plodder and while World Beater is nice I think he's pretty well exposed at this point. Test Score has the best credentials and is a contender but he's not one I'm scared from and thought he got a perfect trip in the last. New Century is a horse I was sky high on before his last and I could not have come away more disappointed in that effort. When I look at Capitol Hill I think the sky is the limit in terms of upside. He's lightly raced and I'll dismiss the debut effort as he's clearly a turf horse. The maiden breaker was tremendous and Uncatalyzed is far from a tomato can - he ran past him like he was tied to a post that day. Keeneland is a weird surface and while that effort was disappointing it was another solid field where he broke out into the hot dog stand and was just wide throughout. The dirt effort after is another easy line through race to me but I loved his Manilla effort. Yes, he saved ground throughout but he figures to do so again today. I thought his run at Zulu Kingdom was tremendous and showed his ability - I play around with numbers and think for whatever reason Beyer figs have continually underrated the quality of efforts of Zulu Kingdoms races (not saying they are wrong per say) - I think that effort puts him a lot closer to the best of the NA contingent here and if the Euros don't take to this course, I fully expect another step forward and think he's about as likely as many of the lower prices in here.
Good luck.
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