[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ $290K LATE P5 C/O


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$290k P5 carryover starts here..

Very difficult sequence..

Most Likely: #9 Good Game 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Toolatebabydoll 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Oak Alley 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Play With Magic 8-1 12th


7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Amoss tough of the claim and Lend It Tewmey could be a good lean for small budgets..

Most Likely: #5 Lend It Tewmey Gate SCR
Next Best: #8 Xander 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #6 Sutherland Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Rivalry 8-5 2nd


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Devilishly deep and tricky group. Getting through this likely key to sequence. 1-2-4-5-6-10 the leading candidates, but the other 5 players are not far from their reach..

Best Value: #2 Nicolai 15-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Dapper Moon 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Missed the Turf 20-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Jack's Promise 12-1 10th


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Mountain Bear 'appears' formidable, but he's outposted and is coming back from nearly 8 months off. And there's competitive options in here..

Best Value: #7 Nantasket Beach 20-1 WON ($15.70)
Next Best: #12 Mountain Bear 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tut's Revenge 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Alder 20-1 3rd

$1 EXA (7/12) $26.51
$1 TRI (7/12/10) $721.32
$1 SUPER (7/12/10/2) $3,739.10


10th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (Hi-5)

Lightly raced Next Up as viable as any, should get a good up close stalking trip and is a big overlay at 15-1..

Best Value: #2 Next Up 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Take Charge Omaha 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Flash Wear 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Princess Ny 15-1 7th


C/O P5 Grid:

6: 1-9 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
7: 5/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 3-8-9-11 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x7x2x3 = 168 x .50 = $84
All A's: 2x1x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x1x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-8-9-11 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

7: 5/SCR-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), 3-8-11 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAA): 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3-8-11 in 8th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve