Quote:
Originally Posted by DonGuido
Looks like a tough post position for Fierceness and Pletcher. I saw that no horse has won the Derby from that gate..May boad well for Sierra Leone and Chad Brown. Havent been close to the prep faces, does Fierceness have enough early speed to clear the crowd?
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I think that in 2020 Authentic wore saddlecloth 18; however, due to a scratch of a horse to his inside, he actually broke out of gate 17. Can anyone else help me verify that recollection?
I think that Fierceness has enough early speed to be forwardly placed down the long run to the first turn. It helps also that he has the rest of the early speed to his inside, so Johnny V should be able to move over before the crush of the turn. However, it appears that Just a Tough, Dornach and Track Phantom all have about as much early speed, so I just don't see Fierceness being able to set an easy pace. Besides, this is the Derby, so you can usually count of someone to forget they have to last 1 1/4 miles and gun for the lead. For me, it is difficult to trust Fierceness in the event that there is a fast or a contested pace. When he has had everything go his way, he is awesome and by far the most talented horse in the race. But, when it hasn't gone his way - see Holy Bull and Champagne.
In short (for me? Hah!) there might be some reasons to not bet on Fierceness, but the fact that he will be breaking from post 17 isn't one of them.