To my mind the exacta payoff on race 5 was surprisingly low. The race finished with the 2nd choice Durante (#8) winning and the speed half of the entry Daufuskie Island (1A) finishing 2nd. The exacta payoff was $4.30 for $1.
I was shocked by two things: (1) The reverse exacta wil lpay of 1/8 would have paid $8.00. Normally the exacta of favorite over 2nd choice is the lowest payout. Here, 2nd choice over favorite was lowest by a lot. (2) With only a few minutes to post, the 1-8 will pay was around $6.00 and the 8-1 will pay was around $9.00. That was a very dramatic shift in payoffs in a very short time, even though the win odds didn't move very much (the entry stayed right around 7-5 and Durante dropped from 5-2 to 2-1). It took a lot of late money in the exacta pool to account for that movement.
If I were a very cynical person, I'd suggest that some exacta bets were placed after Durante broke well from the gate and assumed the lead from Daufuskie Island, who on paper was supposed to be controlling speed. But I'm not cynical, just surprised and disappointed.
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