Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
Be the Boss was overbet and ran poorly. Running Bee was never really in doubt, though only went off at 2/1 returning $10.40 total.
Total wagered: $160.00
Total returned: $125.90
Thursday, August 11.
Best bet: Race 9 - #10 Derrynane 5/1 ML, Clement/Rosario. I suspect that Poppyflower and Empress Tigress will be the two horses people look at from the Coronation Cup and both those horses ran well and deserve that interest. But I thought Derrynane just had a really awkward trip. There were multiple spots where she came close to steadying, just didn't seem comfortable for most of the race, then lacked room at the top of the stretch and had to awkwardly move out to get running room. I think breaking from the outside, she'll hopefully not have to deal with any of that. The chart says she made up almost 53 lengths in the stretch and while we know that's wrong, she did put in a strong effort once she got into the clear. Looking for her to run big here at a square price.
Best value: Race 10 - #10 Bavarian Creme 8/1 ML, Hennig/Prat. I don't know if this horse is going to go off at 8/1 a few of the horses from that MSW turf race on May 30th have come back to win, including Dream Central who has won two stakes races since then. Plus, Prat is aboard. This one did seem to have another gear that it kicked into in the stretch and I liked the professionalism she showed when asked for more. Not seeing any horse that really stands out in this group, I think she's worth a stab at 8/1.
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Well, I've lost my last dollar betting on Derrynane and Bavarian Creme was just not very good after being bet down.
Total wagered: $168.00
Total returned: $125.90
Best bet: Race 3 - #1 Saint Selby 4/1 ML, Atras/Carmouche. Conventional wisdom here is that there is a lot of speed which should set up for a stalker or closer but I'm going to buck that here and hope for a nice price on what I think is a pretty nice horse. Carmouche is going to have to get this horse forward from the start but that's basically what he does best. Note, closers are not running particularly well at 6 furlongs at Saratoga so while My Boy Tate may seem appealing, I'm not sure I want to bet money on him. Ny Traffic could be tough but I don't want any part of him at what will likely be very short odds. Looking for a wire to wire winner here.
Best value: Race 10 - #4 Sinfully Sweet 10/1 ML, Casse/McCarthy. I don't see a ton of pace in here so while Sinfully Sweet has generally run in turf sprints, I think this could turn into a turf sprint when they hit the stretch. If that's the case, I want her as I believe she is the most talented turf horse in this field and I'm willing to overlook my lukewarm feelings about Casse/McCarthy to take a shot on a talented horse that should be a nice price.