[moses]

Triumphant return was terrible, as was Movie Moxy (but at least I got big odds on her). I guess I shouldn't have switched off of Tiergan who won easily.

After Day 15.
Total wagered: $120.00
Total returned: $93.30

Best bet: Race 7 - #8 Hit the Woah 6/1 ML, Clement/I.Ortiz. The first thing I'll note is that I expect a lot of early speed in this one with Spicy Marg, Athwaq, and Mail Order running up front. Of those horses, I think Mail Order has the best chance to win this...but I'm looking at the horses who will be running late. Interestingly, Irad opts to stay aboard Hit the Woah who ran down lesser competition than this in her last start back in February at Gulfstream. I generally don't like betting turf horses from Gulfstream. I'm never quite sure if their performance will translate to a better turf course. But...this one interests me. From the very beginning, I think Clement liked this horse. Once she broke her maiden, he placed her in three consecutive stakes races and she actually ran better on the turf than in her lone dirt stakes race. Back in February, I was impressed with how she made a move once urged by Irad and then really kicked it into gear once he went to the whip. She's talented, she's not outclassed by this group imo, she should get some pace to run at, and she's got one of the best jockeys out there to try to time her move to run them down.

Best value: Race 8 - #3 Chess Chief 15/1 ML, Stewart/Gutierrez. This is a bit of a shot in the dark...but Chess Chief was wide throughout in his last race and I'm going to chalk it up to him just needing a race. Following that one, he put in a great workout at Churchill then shipped to Saratoga and has put in two pretty nice works. Prior to his last start, he was facing tougher competition than he'll face here and I'm hoping the time off will have done him some good. Art Collector is obviously much the horse to beat in here...but he's returning from his disappointing performance in the Saudi Cup and I'm not crazy about why he was put on turf for a couple workouts. Masqueparade is another horse who I've always liked but I'm not sure how much better he's gotten from his 3YO year. Instead, I'm going to hope Chess Chief can recapture some of his prior form and surprise them here. Although Reylu has ridden him to 15 length losses in his last 3 races, I do like that Dallas Stewart keeps him aboard as he did notch a nice win against solid competition 4 back in his win in the Tenacious Stakes.

These are both big swings in a way...but I feel the favorites are vulnerable in both cases and I'm really not sure how good the logical alternatives (Mystic Night and Masqueparade) are in the Alydar.