Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
After Day 14.
Total wagered: $112.00
Total returned: $93.30
I've whiffed in my last couple races. I didn't have much time to look at the PPs last week and it showed. Kicking myself for not picking Gunite as I really hated the favorite in that race and ended up betting Gunite...but it happens. I was a bit preoccupied. Hopefully I can rebound and pick a few winners this week.
Best bet: Race 7 - #3 - Tiergan 8/5 ML, Giangiulio/I.Ortiz. I guess we will see what price Tiergan goes off at. With Irad aboard, I'm not optimistic but I'll take 8/5 as I think he's got a very strong chance to win this. I may look a little closer at the card in the next hour or two and see if there is a better price to put here...but if not, I'll roll with Tiergan.
Best value: Race 5 - #4 Triumphant Return 10/1 ML, Barker/Castellano. Castellano has been hot so I've been taking a closer look at all of his mounts. This one interests me quite a bit as the works are solid, the pedigree screams turf to me, and the winner from his start here last year went on to win the Swale earlier this year. I'm not going to count that race much against him and if he's 10/1 or above, why not? Sosua Summer for Mott hasn't won in 8 tries and his only time sprinting lost a lot of ground in the stretch. Of course, the winner of that race went on to win 4 consecutive stakes races including the Quick Call two weeks ago. The runner up won next time out and followed it up with an allowance win. But still, he's not for me. Java Buzz draws Prat again and may be the horse to beat...but I just don't like him at a short price.
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I'm going to mix it up because I think I found another price horse worth playing. So swap out Tiergan (who I do think should win) and add in:
Race 9 - #5 Movie Moxy 12/1 ML, Weaver/J.Ortiz. I don't think this horse was running the right races. She was in dirt sprints when I think she is a router. Her lone try around two turns, she was put away by two pretty nice horses in Spice is Nice and Market Rumor. What impressed me that day is that Maedean looked like she was going to swallow Movie Moxy up in the stretch but Movie Moxy fought to hold on for show. After several dirt sprints, she now moves back to a route, this time on the grass. It'll be her first time on the grass so that's a big question mark. Physically, she looks like a turf router to me -- but I'm no expert so take that with a grain of salt. Her pedigree suggests she might like turf, being a Street Sense filly out of a Bernardini mare. The reason I initially didn't land on her is that the #1 Rocky Sky does seem imposing as she had a nightmare trip last time out and still ran fairly well, and she's raced against much tougher than the ones in here. I generally won't bet against a horse like her...but I could easily see the entry going off at 2/5 and I'm willing to go against her at that price.