Have to update my totals this weekend. Onto Friday, 7/29
Best Bet - Race 10: 6 Stella Mars 6/1
Just going back through this field time and again kept coming back to Stella Mars. I know that horses with a huge close sprinting stretching out tend to be overbet but if the morning line is accurate here I think there may actually be some value. Her effort at a mile was pretty good and I thought the move was mistimed by Samuels. Huge upgrade to Rosario who rode her last time for a career effort and sees fit to stay on the stretchout and jump in class. I just kept coming back to her as simply the best runner in the field.
Best Value - Race 8: 9 Kobe Tough 30/1
Probably should put the pipe down I guess but going to take a wild swing on a horse who has no chance at all on paper. That said, I'm just not a big believer in any of the favorites in here, they're all fine and can win but I wanted to try to find a price and I couldn't really talk myself into any of the more logicals in that category. I'm taking a chance here that Kobe Tough is a rapidly improving horse who takes another big leap forward today. The horse showed a little bit of ability as a 2yo sprinting on the turf...they then moved to dirt for a while and I'm kind of crossing those races off although he was showing some slight steady progress. After the freshening they got back to what I think is his game and three back he got into some trouble after the start and in the stretch but ultimately probably needed the race. The trip Jose Ortiz gave him two back in a huge field going 5F at Pimlico was awful and yet he was finishing with some interest. Last out he showed some real versatility as previously he was used as a stone cold closer, going back to running on the lead as he did in those 2yo turf sprints...opened up 5 and while he was getting caught late was never in danger. That 79 Beyer leaves him wanting a lot more improvement to get even close to some of these today but I think his tactical speed and ability to pass horses will suit well in here and at the expected price I will take a stab.
Good luck
|