Thursday, July 28.
Best bet: Race 3 - #2 Auburn Hills 8/1 ML, Persaud/Alvarado. In a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed, I think it makes a lot of sense to take a shot on Auburn Hills given his running style and the cutback in distance. I assume Boldish would have been heavily favored, dropping in for a tag, but the works haven't been great, there was no work last week, and we haven't seen him race since January at Parx. With Boldish scratched, I'm not sure the price we'll get on Auburn Hills but I think he's a winner here.
Best value: Race 9 (on the turf) - #9 Ajourneytofreedom 8/1 ML, Maker/Saez. We'll see if this race stays on the turf as thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at Saratoga. If this one washes off, I'm going to have to post an alternate here. I think Ajourneytofreedom is worth a 2nd chance after coming up empty at Churchill on 5/21. Maker always seems to do well in these long turf routes and Ajourneytofreedom is getting some class relief from his previous races. He has a strong set of workouts heading into this race and, although I haven't been crazy about Saez at Saratoga, I think the odds will make this one worth it. Alternate best value: Race 4 - #2 Sinful Dancer 5/1 ML, Weaver/Cancel. (Has shown some early speed previously, adds blinkers, fast workout 5 days ago, and races last year and earlier this year against Americanrevolution and Disco Pharoah make me think he can get it done against this group.)
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