Reiterating my picks for today and posting Saturday's picks:
Friday, July 15
Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie.
Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche.
(Commentary above)
Saturday, July 16
Best Bet: Race 9 - #4 Analogy 10/1 ML, Pletcher/Carmouche. I'm not sure exactly what this horse's preferred running style is as he won on the lead two back but looked pretty good coming from off the pace in his last race. The versatility is a plus. Note that the runner up two back broke his maiden next time out (including over yesterday's winner Snow's Island) and followed that up with an allowance win over Easter (who Motion thought highly enough of to run in the Man O War.) I don't see much difference between this horse and a horse like Credit Event - although Credit Event will be a shorter price. ML favorite Fort Ticonderoga may be tough as the runner up from last time out, Growth Capital, seems to be a pretty good horse. But I think is worth taking a shot against.
Best Value: Race 3 - #11 Jocosity 10/1 ML, Mott/I.Ortiz. I know that conventional wisdom is to bet against Mott first time starters but I'm playing this horse off of a gut instinct that Mott has brought a talented group of horses to Saratoga and is looking to make some noise. Chad Brown's Robyn and Eli may be the horse to beat here and far be it for me to question Chad Brown's strategy, but I'm not crazy about her being moved from sprint to route to sprint...now back to a route. Last out, she lost to a 40/1 horse that had only finished in the money one other time in her career. So I'm not really crazy about betting her. Seeing Mott and Irad team up here, I'm banking on this horse having some talent.
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