Quote:
Originally Posted by DonGuido
Most of us looked prettty bad yesterday. Our long shot players must have hit a bomb or two in ROI.
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It can be difficult to spot a real longshot when you need to make your wager far in advance of the race.
To me a real value play is when the actual betting odds are far in excess of what the astute handicapper thinks they should be, but you can only determine that by looking at the tote board shortly before the race is run.
Two examples jump out at me from yesterday. In the Arlington (race 8), the winner, Admissions Office, was a legitimate contender and was listed in the ML at 3-1. It went off at 8-1 in the actual betting and represented sound value. Similarly, in the Aristides (race 9) Bango was the co-third choice in the ML at 4-1 odds, but was allowed to leave the gate at around 10-1, once again providing good betting value for the tote watchers.
Unfortunately, we need to place our ROI wagers before first post, so our longshot players would not have been able to recognize that betting value, and might have chosen to disregard both of those legitimate contenders as "not enough betting value to merit a bet."
Just one of the many fascinating variables in this game that we play. It's also why I wait until just a couple of minutes before the race goes off before I place my real wagers, and pay a great deal of attention to the action on the tote board. Every so often it pays off.