Classic Causeway at 10:1 is remarkable. People actually saw his race on Saturday and said "yup, this is the Derby winner." They actually think the fourth best of four speed horses potentially lined up for this race was around 10% to win the 10F KY Derby. They think he's more likely to win than Epicenter ( 13:1 ) who feels about ten times as likely to win. Sure, Forbidden Kingdom is overbet at 7:1 ( he's the lone legit West Coast horse so that makes a certain amount of sense ) but he's a helluva lot more likely to win than Classic Causeway. Even Early Voting ( 19:1 ) is more likely to win as, unlike Classic Causeway, he hasn't given further evidence that he is not. What is the argument for him besides "He really looked good at Tampa" beating Grantham, Shipsational. Golden Glider, and Trademark. One of those four that were reasonably close behind him, after he was allowed to dictate in a moderate pace, is in the Derby futures pool....and he's ( rightfully ) over 50:1.
I get that basically all these horses are undervalued, and one bettor is making Smile Happy the underlay of underlays....except my guess is that multiple bettors are making Classic Causeway about 10% of his actual chances of winning this race. Who knows, maybe all the right horses won't make the gate....and even then 10:1 feels hard to justify.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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