Quote:
Originally Posted by JolyB
Great comment RQ. As horseplayers we are often so fixated on our picks and results that we forget how frequently outcomes are affected by pure luck and how that luck tends to even out. We whine when our 12-1 shot gets bet down to 6-1 or less but happily run to the window and accept the payout as a matter of course when the real odds are double the morning line. We remember the tough beats for years but ignore the times when the stewards' decision went our way even if it probably shouldn't have. I'm as guilty of that as anyone.
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I have heard it said that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and I think that is right in horse playing. If you approach it as a logical thing, it will likely be rare that you ever hit the long shots that pay off because they often aren't logical or at least as logical as other plays in a given field, but be that as it may, I still prefer picks with some logic behind them to random picks, but maybe that's where my play comes crashing down. At any rate, I continue to try to make the illogical logical.