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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm not surprised as I disagree with most of what you post.
It's not really an opinion...it's just math. Either you understand this or you don't.
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Math is one of my strong points. I understand Sniper's reasoning quite well. Among other things that he is doing right is taking into account the very real chance that Strong Contender will not be around to contest most of the available Gr I's. The attrition rate is so high that it is foolish to leave out that factor.
What's really silly is to even suggest that it is "just math". There's a huge opinion component. The opinion has to do with (1) exactly how good Strong Contender is now, (2) what is his upside, (3) how good is the competition, (4) what's the chance Strong Contender gets injured, (5) what's the chance Invasor is retired or injured, and much more! If you think that's all "just math", then well, please tell me those numbers.
by the way, I'm sorry you disagree with most of what I post. I happen to like (and agree with) the vast majority of your posts.
--Dunbar