#4 Duveen (15/1ML): Impossible for me to leave off any ticket. Should RELISH the lawn and the breeding is pretty solid. Romans been working on the lawn and from the looks of it, it seems like he has been trying to get on the lawn for a long time. Castro+Lawn = Bomb (Ran his eye balls out to get NIPPED at the wire and all the value is now sucked out of him for his next two starts, at least. $15.20 Place. $90 Exa with usuable Mott horse)
#12 Masterofthehouse (20/1ML): This horse wants NO PART of anything 1 mile or shorter and it shows with horrible showing in his first two starts. Look for improvement today with Cornhelio aboard (Cornhelio rode a great race with the post he was given and for a horse that was 3W the whole race, he ran pretty big. Did look a little green and Cornhelio might have had to go for the lead a little earlier then he wants but that will come with time, next back a possible play with a better post)
Race 9:
#9 Break Even(15/1 ML): This horse is bred for the lawn and this is only his 2nd time on it. You get the impression that Casse wouldn't mind him getting claimed but given the breeding and the partial talent he has showed in his 2nd/3rd start, he is playable at anything near 15/1. Two good works while at Gulfstream also. (Got pounded on the board all the way down to 5/1, made a good middle move to only get the hole shut on him and then made ANOTHER run on the turn only to not find a hole, the 12 horse was causing all sorts of problems for the 9, definite play back for me)
Major bet against of the day:
Race 3:
#4 Barcola (9/5 ML, 4/5 post): Monster race last time that was 100% aided by a speed bias rail. if you were an inch from the rail you weren't gaining on anyone. Throw that into the mix and the fact that he beat rats in the race and you have a horse that is probably going to run a struggling 3rd here. The #3 Welcome Again(4/1ML) at probably 5/2 is extremely playable to me in this race (With the scratch of Welcome Again, Barcola SHOULD have been 3/5 or 4/5 and ended up at 7/5, that right there should have told you he was up against it today. Way too fast early by Barcola and it couldn't have set up any better for Fairbanks, this is the EXACT race where pick three players can make a killing. Just looking at the will pays, the 2 horse was LOWER in the Doubles)
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