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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit.
I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.
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I'd put him at 50-1 to get to the gate of the Donn and actually win it, maybe more like 70-1 since he still has to get through this prep and come back in 4 weeks. Then it is three more months before there is another G1 on the east coast which means he has to stay healthy and in training and performing at a high enough level to even be entered in another G1. I think that is incredibly unlikely and that even if he does enter another G1 his chances of winning are 50-1 again.
At least Sir Greeley will almost certainly be in the Carter and Met Mile as he has been a durable horse so perhaps the 50-1 odds on him are too low if you think 35-1 is completely unrealistic.