Two G2s on an intriguing card…a few interesting value plays in the first half of the card…
Race 1:
#9 Joy N Fun Legend: As I mentioned last time, he has done absolutely nothing on the track, although he has had some excuses, which was also the case last time (big mid-race move). There’s absolutely no speed in this race, and he’s drawn well and down to 114lbs with the apprentice. If he can get in front and back it down to a crawl, who knows what can happen. I’ll take a stab at boxcar odds.
On the other hand, the most likely winner for me is #3 Home Win. Finished 4th in his two runs in this class and is now 7lbs better off versus the winners those days (who are also in here). Drawn the rail, can go forward if necessary, and his two wins in Australia were at 1900m and 2000m. 5-1 overnight looks an OK price.
Race 2:
#14 is around even money on the overnight odds and I think that’s a huge underlay, but I didn’t find much to like in here. #4 Hang’s Decision has been the victim of some poor draws lately, being forced to sit wide. He ran well with a good trip two starts ago and hopefully something similar can play out here.
Race 3:
#5 Rattan was caught wide and without cover last time, so we can put a line through that run. Down at 119lbs he’s the best weighted runner in here, and while he’s against a couple of runners on the way up while he may be on the way down, the price is more than right.
#1 Hot King Prawn may not be fully cranked for this and has to carry the top weight, but he loves running fresh and is the key exotics play.
Race 4:
I’m not too sure about #2 Ezra over the 1600m, but he has run 3rd and 4th over the course and distance, and this isn’t the strongest race.
Race 5:
#1 Triple Triple didn’t get a clear path last time until inside the final 1/16th, but despite that was still 5th in Class 3. Just missed in his last C4 try and from gate 3 should avoid the poor, wide trips he's encountered in his other recent runs.
#12 Super Red Dragon has finished 2nd twice in his last four runs. Must use for exotics.
#11 One Happy Star had to work very hard early from gate 12 when returning off a long layoff at HV. Won a trial wire to wire prior to that and now drawn the rail in a race not full of speed. Good price add.
Race 10:
#12 Romantic Combo’s work improved during the off-season and he showed ability last time when flying home in 44.8 (last 400m in 22.07). Will get back again from a wide draw but there should be a bit more pace in this, and he is third off the layoff.
PLAYS
R1 WP 3,9
R1 EX BOX 1,3,5,9
R2 WP 4
R3 WP 5
R3 EX 1,5/1,5
R4 WP 2
R5 WIN 1
R5 Q 1/3,4,5,7,9,11,12
R5 TRI 1/11,12/3,4,5,7,9,11,12
R10 WP 12
Good luck!
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