Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
That's downplaying the terrible move Smith made. He basically made a 5-wide sweep in the middle of the first turn after a 1/4 mile, way too late to be establishing early position.
I know he broke his maiden wire-to-wire, however, to say he ran in one of the worst 2yo maiden special weights of the year in CA would be an understatement. Only the now 1-for-10 Tizamagician subsequently won a MSW, and one of the also-rans came back to win a bottom level maiden claimer before going on the bench for several months. The others are all still toiling in the maiden ranks. Honor A.P., coming off his debut in a sprint, was ripe to show more pace on the stretch-out, and probably found himself dominating the race on sheer class judging by his rivals' subsequent records.
I don't see much difference between his trip in the San Felipe and SA Derby. He's a stalker with a strong turn move--and Smith's ride in the Shared Belief played against that style.
At any rate, the comparison was with Art Collector who is clearly more versatile than Honor A.P. having shown winning form at multiple levels, over multiple distances, with different running styles.
I wouldn't have been, Smith made the horse run for over 3/4 of a mile and the colt still finished with good courage. If he was lacking any fitness for the Shared Belief, he probably wasn't afterwards.
This is where I would be concerned. The classic overreaction on the part of the connections. Not only did they work the horse a mere 7 days after that gut-busting trip courtesy of Smith in the Shared Belief, but then they breezed the horse a near bullet in the afternoon over one of the most tiring surfaces in the country. Smith even went so far as to push the horse aggressively on the gallop out, needlessly giving the horse a couple of shoulder taps a few strides before standing up on him at the 7/8 pole.
A good candidate to be over-the-top come Derby day, a la Bolt d'Oro.
|
I admit that that sweep move was premature; I suppose he could have just let HAP settle. My friend, who also loves HAP, is concerned because she says Mike has been making that move all meet. I haven’t paid attention, I admit. Generally, I believe great athletes in slumps will get out of them, so hopefully Mike will before the Derby.
Fair enough about the maiden...can’t argue there.
About the SF and SD, my point was just that HAP could run closer to the pace or more mid-pack. I get your point about AC, though - I won’t argue. I am confident that HAP is better -but then I feel strongly about him, period.
About fitness, while that’s true about the Shared Belief, overall HAP was kind of spotty in the race. I was encouraged that he closed well even when clearly not at his best.
He had another fantastic work yesterday. Mike was interviewed afterwards in TVG and he said that the colt had been so lightly trained - they left room for him to get fitter, and he did get something out of the race. I think they’re using the works, and he seems to be thriving. I personally think HAP needed those works, and he enjoys them, but I suppose it’s always possible that you’re right. I hope not, lol. We’ll find out soon!