I don't think that the handicapping world has shifted on its axis. There have been perhaps a few more perplexing results than normal, but these things average out over time.
On today's card, there were a number of fairly predictable results and a couple that were complete headscratchers. Identifier in the Hal's Hope was one of them. Even more baffling was the 4th placed finisher in that race who went off at 128-1. The 2nd place finisher in the Derby ran an incredibly brave race - ran much better than he looked on paper.
Year in, year out post time favorites tend to win just about 33-35% of the time, depending upon the size of the field. I think that's about what we have been seeing - today was a bit under that, but the fields were very competitive so that is no surprise. I felt that the ML was somewhat off today, with a number of 8-1 or 10-1 choices in the ML in fact going off quite a bit lower than that. The bettors seem to get it right more often than the linemaker.
There are always going to be results that make no sense and horses that on paper should win but find a way to get beaten. I guess that's why successful handicappers always seek value in their plays, knowing that they have to get a good price when they win, because they are going to lose many more times than they win. The trick is winning often enough at a good price to overcome the #$%&* takeout.
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