[Kasept]

There is a proviso regarding 0-2-X.. and that is time between starts and maturity of the horse.

A 2yo that runs a "10" (0) and then a "12" (2) may horse very well "bounce to a "17-20" (X) if running back on about 21 days rest. But give that same 2yo 35-42 days, and he may likely "pair" up to the 10-12 range, and possibly even move forward.

Three years olds that run healthy patterns are particularly adept at pairing up. When you see a soph running sheet figures or Beyers that show pairs of numbers followed by progression to another set of pair-ups, you're seeing a healthy horse that is improving steadily.

Thunder Gulch has about the most perfect development arc you'd ever want to see... On TG, he ran:

18.5 in his career debut (69 Beyer);
15.25 in his Maiden win (82 Beyer);
15 when 2nd in Cowdin (79 Beyer);
14.75 when 4th in the Nashua (79 Beyer).

Note the career start... Fairly easy debut followed by a forward move and 2 pair ups.

Then he moved forward:

11 in the Remsen win (89 Beyer) and paired the
11 when 2nd in the HOL Futurity (99 Beyer).

60 day break followed, and then he ripped into the great 3yo campaign:

2/18-Fountain of Youth: 3.5 (105 Beyer) WIN, a new top in seasonal debut.. (You love to see a three year old run as fast very early in his soph campaign as he did at the end of his juvy campaign. Here, he was suddenly much faster)

3/11-Florida Derby: 3.5 (101 Beyer) WIN, a pair up

4/15-Blue Grass: 5.5 (101 Beyer) 4TH, an "off effort" (a slight regression from the new top and pair up. Now this can be seen as an 0-2 normally with anticipation for an X... But Thunder Gulch was in the midst of a perfectly orchestrated career, and was healthy as can be. People misjudged his 4th in the Blue Grass as a sign to abandon him, when in fact he was about to run his typical "A" race again three weeks later. And of course 'Pat Day off, Gary Stevens on' was a big plus..)

5/6-Kentucky Derby: 3.5 (108 Beyer) WIN, a pair up

He stayed at the high level through the early summer, and then raised his top and paired that with the back to back wins in the Travers and KY Cup Classic.

An example...