Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss
No offense but you didn’t answer the question. At the end of the day I think far more people find the result just and fair than a clown show.
Comparing a steeplechase race to the Derby is a pretty far reach. Long Range Toddy was totally eliminated when he took up. You expected him to re rally and make up the 10 lengths or so he lost? War of Will was in the midst of his move when he almost clipped heels. You thought he should have been able to regain his momentum and gain an additional 5 lengths on a horse who miraculously was running his final 1/4 faster than his prior two?
Sorry, but it just doesn’t work that way.
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No offense taken. Respect to your for asking. It was difficult to quantify, but I did my best to try and answer it for you based on my experience.
The jump racing examples were that which I have seen in the last couple hundred yards of a race. I'm sure it has happened on the flat, maybe not often, but it does happen.
Concerning Long Range Toddy, I'm sure the "tap" that War of Will gave him at the 3/8th pole didn't help and may have started his demise. Also keep in mind, if Long Range Toddy was fast enough, he would have never lost his position off of Maximum Security's right flank, by allowing War of Will to squeeze by. Long Range Toddy had already started to weaken out of the race. The contact at the 5/16th pole just hastened his retreat. He was never going to contest the finish of the race.
By the time they hit the quarter pole Maximum Security, Code of Honor, War of Will, and Country House were all in full stride. It looked to me that Code of Honor had Maximum Security by about a head, with Country House a neck behind Maximum Security and War of Will about 3/4 length behind Maximum Security. War of Will was
never 5 lengths back after the contact, maybe 1 1/4 length at best. He lost maybe a 1/2 length in the contact and was beaten 4 1/2 lengths at the finish.
So at the 1/4 pole, we have 4 horses across the track within a length of each other. Each horse had a fair opportunity to win. Only Maximum Security and War of Will were affected by the contact. Country House may have had to go one more path wide but never lost momentum and was continuously ridden. Also while approaching the 1/4 pole it looked like Country House came in a bit and gave War of Will a "tap". Though the video angle is not the best (no head on available).
From the 1/4 pole on, the afore mentioned 4 horses all, if good enough, could win.
At the 1/8 pole, Maximum Security had gone clear of Country House by a length, with War of Will and Code of Honor 1 1/4 behind. At this point, Gafflione stated that War of Will was done. He could not match the pace of Maximum Security and was never going to beat him. He discussed as much with Casse, that's why no objection from them.
At the 1/16 pole, Maximum Security has extended his lead over Country House to what looks like 1 1/2 length with Code of Honor passing War of Will about 2 lengths back.
At the Finish, Maximum Security is still extending his lead to win by 1 3/4 length over Country House with Code of Honor beaten in third by 2 1/2 lengths.
Just out of curiousity, I just read the Equibase chart. What a piece of fiction, expecially concerning BodeExpress. Again, he felt the knock on effect when War of Will came out and tapped Long Range Toddy, who in turn tapped BodeExpress at the 3/8 pole. BodeExpress took up slightly during the subsequent contact, but he was already done by that point and was never going to figure in the finish.
If I missed something, let me know.