Don Guido, as always you have done a superb job in your analysis of capping the cappers.
Alas, you nailed me dead on - I've always had a tendency to overprepare. It has held me in good stead for things like bar exams, transactional closings and as a seminar panelist, but has been the kiss of death in my capping of the BC. By now, I think I could give you a reason why each of the entrants in the Classic could win, and another reason why each of them could likely get beaten.
That doesn't help the decision making process very much.
I'll be glad to compute the actual odds and will pays after all the entries have been submitted (which I assume will be not later than post time for the first BC race on Friday). It has always amazed me just how differently our players predict the Cup winner from the qualifying point standings.