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Old 12-27-2006, 11:21 PM
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NoCarolinaTony NoCarolinaTony is offline
Suffolk Downs
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Charlotte NC
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Many Trainers and stable managers use sheets to place horses in races to run or use them to buy horses,typically early on in their careers based on potential.

I would agree with Steve, in that I really don't get so hung up on the thoro pattern of the universe of horse but rather of the trainers typical MO. I also use the Sheets for horse elimination and or inclusion in exotics vs looking for winners. Another thing you must consider, is that on major cicuits like NY or CA there are many sheet players (TG or Ragozin), so the major coup are harder and harder to find but on minor circuits, the sheets can find you those gems we all are looking for. I also prefer the thoro quicks on the major circuits, but I find the sheet format helpful on the smaller circuits like Beulah for instance, in that you do see patterns and spacing or identify potential or project potential reactions or bounces. You can mathematically calculate the range of numbers for any given field of horses and genrate a range as to where this upcomming race might be run and then try to see what pattern the horse you are looking at projects to run and if that runner fits. I don't base decisions on who to bet on thoro pattern projections. It's more of a nice to have when making your final cuts so to speak.

Anyway, I question the value of the fractional numbers above 5 and certainly above 10. I have a strong belief that the turf numbers are superior and tighter and more transferable track to track than the dirt numbers. (Just my opinion). That is not to say that the dirt numbers are bad or a misrepresentation in any way, more of result of the way turf races are run vs dirt in US.

What could be most helpful to anyone is look back at the past Breeders Cup or Derby Archive files and see what happened to horses going in. Ask specific questions about patterns of upcomming races or those past key races might also be most beneficial.

Look at AQU R6 from yesterday and tell me why based upon TG Figs Baby Yaya should have been 36-1 in that field?

I will be glad to help if I can.

NC Tony
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