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Originally Posted by brianwspencer
On a sidenote, Steve -- are you or anyone else able to explain the patterns they have where it says like (Top-Pair-Off) (12-12-17) and how on earth we are supposed to use that? I've read the TG explanation of it about 50 times and still don't get it.
It's one of the very few things I don't understand on the sheets -- is it helpful to understand? How can we apply it to capping?
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Bri,
The "Thoro-Pattern" is a relatively new analysis. It is a "predictor" based on a universe of horse performance data. It basically summarizes what horses that have run the same set of figures might do in this situation based on the pattern.
For instance, you cited a 12-12-17 "set" which was a "Top-Pair-Off" series of performances for that horse. The "Thoro-Pattern" is telling you that historically, when horses run a range of numbers like that (12-12-17/Top-Pair-Off) they do the following in their subsequent start:
TOP: 14% (14% of the time they run a new Top best figure)
PAIR: 26% (26% of the time they Pair up to their best figure)
OFF: 38% (38% of the time the run a figure 1-3 points Off their best fig)
X: 22% (22% of the time they run a figure 3+ points off their best)
In other words, after running a Top-Pair-Off, it is only 14% likely that the horse is now going to run BETTER than that 12 (which is his Top)...
Adding the Pair and Top tells you that there is a total opportunity of 40% (14+26) that the horse will run a 12 or better...
Adding the Off and X together tells you that the horse is 60% likely to run WORSE than a 13 and higher.
If you see there are horses in the race running 8's and 9's, you can feel good that this horse with the 12-12-17 is NOT going to jump up and beat you and you can eliminate him. If the horses in the race have been running 20's and 22's, and you can't see one that has a reason to improve, you can feel good that your 12-12-17 horse is going to run a race that should make him the most likely winner.
Does that give you a better understanding of it?