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Originally Posted by Kasept
And you know, we should all recognize from this that there's credence to Bellsbendboy's P4 theories... Two REALLY playable horses in Kip Deville and Latent Heat bring back great mutuels, and then the favorites on either end. $1,700??? Wow.. This is why the "4" is the best bet at the track.
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I can't let this go. Come on, obviously a " theory " that says find two solid priced horses to key off in a Pick-4 and you CAN make a lot of money is correct....HOWEVER, finding these two horses and playing your ticket correctly off of them is a whole other story....and one that isn't " writable " for an average of $40....at least not to the tune of making 18 times your investment over time.
I don't think anyone would dispute that a Pick-4 where you have two strong opinions CAN work out well for you and is certainly a situation one should invest in. However, you are likely to be correct with both horses only a small percentage of the time, and while if you're a good handicapper and a good bettor you will find this makes money for you, it is impossible that, first, you will do this with regularity ( especially on small plays ) and secondly that you will have the afformentioned substantial ROI over time.
The Pick-4 is a great bet, and YOU showed us that today, but you have also seen how many times it has proven elusive and a lot harder than it looked beforehand. Mere mortals like us do not have ROIs of $36.24 for every $2 bet.