Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleBenelli
I never said anything about odds or value, there is more value at 3/5 than wiping your rear end with a win ticket on any other horse. My Optimism.... my opinion has to do with the facts.
Had a similar discussion before the Derby on the difference between Bolt-D and Justify. fact was Desourmeax beat the living hell out of Bolt-D, and had no chance at hanging with Justify who won having fun. The retort was that Bolt D wasn’t beaten like a step child and was la D off with a furlong to go. A complete blind observation. Do people really actually watch a race? Anyway, check my post as I tries to help the poor lad out. I think we all saw what happened to the Bolt.
Finally. Really watch the Preakness. When Smith decided to make his move, it was a hand ask, and Justify dropped his rear end and excellerated like a Porsche from 5th to 3rd gear. He swallowed Magic like he was moving backwards. At that point you can observe Smith ride that momentum to the extent it became the necessary lead to set up a big punch from the whip. When cracked Justify poped again and Smith rode it out. Horses closing or not, Smith (not a fan) is still a HoF jockey who is very much aware of where the wire is at. Very smart and experienced move that demonstrates the confidence he had in the abilities of this Beast, and the fact that he knew the big one was still to come.
Justify opens up to a one, two, now 3 length lead, it’s alll Justification at this point as JUSTIFY wins the triple crown in a jaw dropping performance.
Good luck
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You may be right and thanks for the input, it’s appreciated. It seems like there are two factions: those who think Justify will win easily and those who think he won’t even hit the board. I guess I’m in the middle. I think he’s the best horse in the race but I think he’s tired and I’m willing to bet against him with history on my side. Regardless of his resume, it’s hard to win the Triple Crown. I think this will be a tough race for him. I’m happy to place some bets against him. If he beats me, I’ll just have to tip my cap to him.