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Originally Posted by brianwspencer
basically, original poster explains it exactly how i've been trying to explain it. perhaps i've worded it poorly, but i've been saying the same thing that the original poster was. don't talk yourself out of the horse you think is going to win just because of the price...find creative ways (like i've been saying, using that horse as a key in exotics to cash in on it) to bet that horse instead of talking yourself out of it for the sake of not playing chalk.
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I understand what you're saying but I disagree.
If you're willing to bet a horse at, say, 2-1 and it goes off at 3/2, you really do need to pass the race unless one of the other horses you believe can win is going off at odds significantly higher than your handicaped line.
You can use the Exacta pool to "validate" win odds and spot potential win pool overlays but you are far less likely to such a bet on a short priced hrse than you are for horses in the 6-1 to 10-1 range.
I think the best and only way to win wager is to bet your horse only when it is at some minimum level above what you think "fair" odds are. And as your horse's odds go up further relative to that minimum level, bet more.
If I think a horse's "fair odds" to win are 4-1, I would need 6-1 to wager $1X . If the same horse goes off at 8-1, I would wager $1.1, etc.
If you go to the track infrequently and recreationally and just want some action, just stay within your budget and enjoy the day. There is certainly nothing wrong with that and I still have those kind of days (ie, family day at the track, business lunch at the track, etc...)
But if you wager seriously, you have to be able to wait for the opportunities when your horse is going off at least at the minimum odds level you need to wager. And, more importantly, to increase your wager level when the odds are higher relative to that minimum.
More than how many winners someone catches, it's really about pressing your percieved advantage and bettting larger amounts when your selection is going off at increasingly higher odds.
just one man's opinion.