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Originally Posted by bogeydaman
The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).
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i'm not "missing" the point, i'm just talking about a 3-2 shot that i envision having more than a 35% chance of winning. when i'm talking about it, i'm thinking big favorites who SHOULD win, meaning that you decide there is more than a "regular" favorites chance of winning (35%-ish).
I am acutely aware of the odds-board vs. perceived likelihood of winning like you've described above. we're just talking about seeing a 3-2 favorite in a different way. if i like a 3-2 favorite generally i'm talking about a horse that i don't see likely losing, if i don't like him on paper it's still going to be obvious without looking at the board that he's a huge favorite -- at which point i know in advance that he's a huge underlay, so it becomes a moot point because i don't need to look at the odds-board and the this entire situation is avoided in the first place. get what i'm saying?