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Originally Posted by brianwspencer
I guess I don't totally agree. We're interpreting the poster's "don't look at the tote board" differently. I'm not interpreting it as saying never look at the tote board and go with who you like regardless of the odds. I think it's the difference between:
1.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then structuring an exotic bet around that 3-2 key horse.
and
2.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then tossing the 3-2 shot out in favor of a horse that would pay $20 that you think has a small chance to win, just because you'd rather go down in flames with the 9-1 horse you don't like as much instead of the chalk just for the sake of saying you did.
I find the first to be rational, and the second to be plain stupid.
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The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).