[Dunbar]

btw, Cardus, you also mentioned "Presidential Election". I've been tempted to make a bet at Pinnacle on the election. Here are two lines of interest:

2008 US Presidential Election: Democratic Party Presidential Nominee
11 Hillary Clinton (all bets have action) -101 Risk To Win
12 Anybody else (all bets have action) -109 Risk To Win

2008 US Presidential Election: Party to win the Presidency
Party to win. ALL BETS HAVE ACTION.
1 Republican Party -102 Risk To Win
2 Democratic Party -108 Risk To Win

("-108" means you put up $108 to win $100)

I see 2 good ways to bet this. First, I think the odds on someone besides Hillary getting the nomination are much better than -109. It should be more like -300. So you could simply bet the "Anybody else" at -109 and have a big edge, IMO.

The 2nd way is to realize that there is only a small chance the Dems would win with Hillary as the nominee. With that in mind, you could bet both the "Anybody else" and the "Republican Party". If you lose the "Anybody else" bet, then there's very little chance you'd also lose the Repub bet. However, you could easily win both bets. (ie, someone besides Hillary gets the nomination, and the Repubs win anyway.) If you assigne reasonable probabilities to all 4 possible outcomes, I think you come up with a significant edge.

The significant downside is that you tie up your money for 2 years, and there is some risk that even a sportsbook like Pinnacle will not be around for the payoff!

--Dunbar