I think "realistic" is in the eye of the beholder -- or the person who has a vested interest in sale going through, LOL. As an owner, I tend to look at economics. Not that economics exclusively dictate, because if that was the case a buyer would never buy a horse. You could never just examine the economic side -- heck, I'd never get a horse bought in my life. There is always going to be some sort of unquantifiable, intrinsic, etc. value that must be part of the equation. People pay premiums for innumerable reasons.
However, when looking at economics, it is very easy to see that the marketplace is very "inefficient" and is very "overvalued". I am not talking about the kind of horses that people buy for $250k and up off of a maiden score, second lifetime start, etc. Look at what people pay for NY breds -- all because there is so much value. At various points in time during the year you have 2 or 3 easy conditions that you can go through -- and you are looking at $125k to $130k of purse money.
Take everything you think and know about the "market" per se and throw it all out because it is very simple to figure out how much a horse is worth. As we have all heard -- a horse is worth . . . what someone is willing to pay. LOL.
Eric
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